The 7th EnKF Data Assimilation Workshop Meeting Program

Co-chairs: Peter Houtekamer and Fuqing Zhang
Toftrees Golf Resort & Conference Center, State College, PA
23-27 May 2016

Organizing committee: Craig Bishop, Massimo Bonivita, Steven Greybush, Ellie Meng, Kayo Ide, Takemasa Miyoshi, Jonathan Poterjoy, Ryan Torn, Jeff Whitaker, Ming Xue, Shu-Chi Yang, and Jiang Zhu
Meeting coordinator: Dandan Tao (dvt5076@psu.edu)

May 23-24: Joint with “Symposium on Advanced Assimilation and Uncertainty Quantification in Big Data Research for Weather, Climate and Earth System Monitoring and Prediction”

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Tentative agenda (15 minutes for each talk (including Q&A); 15-minute discussion after each session)
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Wednesday | Thursday | Friday | Poster Session



Guest wifi available
All meeting package meals are in the Aspen Room (right side of the Field)
Breakfast: 7:00am - 8:15am
Lunch: 12:00pm - 1:30pm
Dinner: 7:30pm - 9:00pm on Monday, 6:30pm - 7:30pm on Tuesday, Thursday
Banquet: 6:30pm - 9:00pm on Wednesday


Wednesday, May 25, 2016

8:00-9:15am Oral session 1: big data and new approaches
  1. Massimo Bonavita: Progress in Ensemble Data Assimilation at ECMWF (pdf slides)
  2. Eugenia Kalnay: New Applications of Data Assimilation to Improve Models and Observations (pdf slides)
  3. Adrian Sandu: Robust EnKF using L1 and Huber norms (pdf slides)
  4. Yoonsang Lee: Stochastic Superparameterization and Multiscale Filtering of Turbulent Tracers (pdf slides)

9:15-10:45am Poster Session (click here)

10:45-12:15am Oral session 2: Non-Gaussian filters
  1. Jonathan Poterjoy: Convective-scale data assimilation in the Weather Research and Forecasting model using a nonlinear ensemble filter. (pdf slides)
  2. Craig H Bishop: The GIGG-EnKF: Ensemble Kalman Filtering for highly skewed non-negative uncertainty distributions. (pdf slides)
  3. Keiichi Kondo: Non-Gaussian statics and data assimilation in the global atmospheric dynamics with 10240-member ensemble Kalman filter (pdf slides)
  4. Dan Hodyss: Polynomial Regression and Serial Ensemble Kalman Filtering (pdf slides)
  5. Zhaoxia Pu: Evaluation of high-resolution surface analyses and forecasts with ensemble Kalman filtering data assimilation in regions of complex terrain (pdf slides)

1:30-3:15pm Oral session 3: sampling, representativeness and model error
  1. Jeff Whitaker: EnKF radiance assimilation using model-space vertical localization (pdf slides)
  2. Jeff Steward: A Hybrid Covariance localization / local analysis algorithm for parallel EnKF (pdf slides)
  3. Istvan Szunyogh: Coping With Model Errors in Data Assimilation (pdf slides)
  4. Yoichiro Ota: Adaptive inflation scheme using the relaxation to prior spread method (pdf slides)
  5. Elizabeth Satterfield: Observed Characteristics of Representation Error (pdf slides)

3:45-5:15pm Oral session 4: error growth and ensemble diagnostics
  1. Kayo Ide: Diagnostics of estimated error structure in ensemble data assimilation (pdf slides)
  2. Michele De La Chevrotiere: A data-driven method for improving the correlation estimation in serial Ensemble Kalman filter (pdf slides)
  3. Daisuke Hotta: Underdispersiveness of EnKF posterior spread when p >> K as revealed by diagnostics of information content measured by Degrees of Freedom for Signal (DFS) (pdf slides)
  4. Jie Feng: 3D Estimates of Analysis and Short-Range Forecast Error Variances (pdf slides)
  5. Sergey Frolov: Localized ensemble-based tangent linear models and their use in propagating hybrid error covariance models (pdf slides)

6:30-9:00pm Banquet
Thursday, May 26, 2016

8:00-9:45am Oral session 5: Assimilation of satellite, precipitation and reflectivity observations
  1. Jason Otkin: Assimilation of satellite infrared brightness temperatures and Doppler radar observations in a high-resolution Observing System Simulation Experiment (pdf slides)
  2. Chih-Chien Chang: Assimilation of GPS Radio Occultation (RO) Refractivity Data with Hybrid-Gain Data Assimilation Algorithm (pdf slides)
  3. Chengsi Liu: Assimilation of Reflectivity Data within the ARPS Hybrid Three-Dimensional Ensemble-Variational (3DEnVar) Data Assimilation Framework (pdf slides)
  4. Zhan Li: EnKF Data Assimilation of Canadian Radar for a Lake-Effect Snowstorm in 2015 (pdf slides)
  5. Shunji Kotsuki: Ensemble Data Assimilation of GSMaP precipitation into the nonhydrostatic global atmospheric model NICAM (pdf slides)
  6. Yonghui Weng: EnKF assimilation of GOES-13 all-sky infrared radiances for TC prediction (pdf slides)

10:15am-12:00pm Oral session 6: Tropical cyclones
  1. Altug Aksoy: An Overview of the Tropical Cyclone Data Assimilation Activities at NOAA’s Hurricane Research Division (pdf slides)
  2. Jason Sippel: The Impact of HS3 Data Upon HWRF Forecasts (pdf slides)
  3. Xu Lu: A GSI-based, End-to-End cycled, Dual Resolution Hybrid Ensemble-Variational Data Assimilation System for HWRF: system description and experiment results (pdf slides)
  4. Kuan Jen Lin: A TC-targeted Ensemble Data Assimilation System: A Case Study of Typhoon Fanapi (2010) (no slides)
  5. Bo Huang: Improving Global and Hurricane Forecasts Using Time-lagged Ensembles in the GFS 4DEnVar Hybrid Data Assimilation System (pdf slides)
  6. Robert Nystrom: Improving the Vortex Initialization of Hurricane Karl (2010) Through the Assimilation of Tropical Cyclone Vitals Quadrant Wind Radii Estimates (pdf slides)

1:30-2:45pm Oral session 7: Convective scales 1
  1. Jonathan Flowerdew: Initial trials of convective-scale data assimilation with a cheaply tunable ensemble filter (pdf slides)
  2. Ryan Sobash: Toward improved initial conditions for NCAR’s real-time convection-allowing ensemble (pdf slides)
  3. Xuguang Wang: Research and Development of GSI-based Ensemble-Variational (EnVar) Data Assimilation for Convective Scale Weather Analysis and Forecasts (pdf slides)
  4. Aaron Johnson: Design and implementation of a convection-permitting GSI-based EnKF data assimilation and forecast system for the PECAN field experiment (pdf slides)

3:15-4:30pm Oral session 8: Convective scales 2
  1. Seung-Jong Baek: Development of Environment Canada's Regional EnKF (pdf slides)
  2. Christopher Kerr: Comparison of model analyses and observations of impacts by deep convection on the surrounding environment (pdf slides)
  3. Guo-Yuan Lien: Radar data assimilation at sub-kilometer scales (pdf slides)
  4. Shu-Chih Yang: Heavy rainfall prediction during the Meiyu seasons in Taiwan with the WRF-LETKF system: what we have learned from the SoWMEX IOP8 event (pdf slides)

Mid-afternoon break

Friday, May 27, 2016

8:00-9:30am Oral session 9: New observing network, ensemble sensitivity, and new applications
  1. David Kuhl: Middle Atmosphere Operational Data Assimilation with the Use of Ensembles (pdf slides)
  2. Jeremy Berman: Applying Ensemble-Based Sensitivity Analysis to WRF Convection Forecasts in the Northern Great Plains (pdf slides)
  3. Yue (Michael) Ying: Observing system design, observation impact and predictability for Madden-Julian oscillation and tropical weather (no slides)
  4. Nick Bassill: Implementiation Of A Data Assimilation System In Conjunction With The New York State Mesonet (pdf slides)
  5. Nusrat Yussouf: Short-term Probabilistic Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts Using NSSL Experimental Warn-on-Forecast System (pdf slides)

10:15-11:30am Concluding session and grand discussion

11:30am Meeting Adjourn

List of poster presentations (in alphabetical order) (suggesting poster size: 3*4 feet landscape)
  1. Chih-Chien Tsai: The Development of WLRAS and Its Very Short-Term QPF Performance in Multiple Heavy Rainfall Events
  2. Di Qi: Preventing Catastrophic Filter Divergence Using Adaptive Additive Inflation for Baroclinic Turbulence
  3. Fernando Arellano Guerrero: Development of a data assimilation method using Ensamble Kalman Filter to improve initial conditions for numerical models
  4. Glen Hanson: Impact of Assimilating Smartphone Pressure Observations on a Regional, High Resolution Ensemble Forecast: Observing System Simulation Experiments with an EnKF
  5. Jeff Steward: Assimilating all-sky satellite observations with a maximally certain statistical operator
  6. JI-SUN Kang: Plan for an Ensemble Data Assimilation System for Forest Fire Prediction
  7. Jonathan Labriola: Dynamical Analysis of Splitting Supercells on 10 May 2010 Using a High-Resolution Ensemble
  8. Jonathan Stroud: Sequential State and Parameter Estimation within the Ensemble Kalman Filter
  9. Lucio Torrisi: The COMET Operational Ensemble Data Assimilation and Forecast System
  10. Matthias Katzfuß: Extended ensemble Kalman filters for data assimilation in hierarchical state-space models
  11. Nicholas Gasperoni: Assessing the Impact of High-Frequency Non-conventional Observations on a Convective Initiation Case using the GSI-based EnKF System
  12. SeHyun Kim: A comparison of convective-scale ensemble predictions using initial conditions produced by ensemble data assimilation and by downscaling from global ensembles of the Unified Model in the Korea Meteorological Administration
  13. Seth Saslo: Regional EnKF for lake-effect snow at convection-resolving scales
  14. Sijie Pan: Testing of a Hybrid 3DEnVar Analysis System by Assimilating Radar and Satellite Data with a Severe Convective Weather Event
  15. Tse-Chun Chen: A Proactive Quality Control (PQC) scheme based on Ensemble Forecast Sensitivity to Observations (EFSO)
  16. Valerio Cardinali: Preliminary study for the use of satellite soil moisture information for Nowcasting-Short Range NWP forecasts
  17. Yuefei Zeng: Conservation laws and LETKF with 2D Shallow Water Model